After the crash which started from 10-01-2008, market showed recovery from Mid-March and went up. In 1st week of April’08 showed uptrend on the chart but with some doubts.
But there after it started rallying down within first three trading session of May’08 chart showed bearish reversal with Three Black Crows. As the reliability of this indicator considered high, I was expecting some solid sell off with loss of 100-150 in one day. However, the marked slided lazily , mimicking the uptrend and confusing the experts and analysists .
Now, all indicators confirm the bearish mood (well, indicators were saying loudly, but I kept fingers crossed :). EMA 20 (red line) is downword, volume are at daily average (ideally it should be decreased during phase). MACD line crossover , with negative divergent (and in negative too ) in histogram. William R% indicated nose dive from overbought to oversold.
One can expect a technical re-bounce , but more down side will be there. Check this example.
I have been enjoying recent market volatilities as they provide me good opportunities to buy stocks at lower valuation , and such volatility makes interesting chart patterns which I enjoy studying and analyzing. So, please dont take my views too seriously.
NIFTY , has been closing on lower side for last three trading sessions and on the candle stick chart it has appeared as Three Black Crows. Three black Crows is considered as the bearish reversal particular when the price has been in continuous uptrend, which is the case with NIFTY.Ordinarily one black candle indicate the interference in bullish trend , second black candle confirm bearish mood, perhaps by the way of profit booking and third consecutive black candle make the reversal obvious.
Recognition Criteria for Three Black Crows:
1. Market is characterized by uptrend.
2. Three consecutive long black candlesticks appear.
3. Each day closes at a new low.
4. Each day opens within the body of the previous day.
5. Each day closes near or at its lows
Therefore, in short term market move to lower levels. However, large selling pressure is not expected as there no negative news. Perhaps traders may want wait till new bullish signal appears on the chart.
Bharat Bijlee (BBL) has been consolidating for last 3 weeks between narrow range of 2100 to 2200. Last three sessions were showing some uptrend with slight rise in price. It is making very interesting chart pattern for break out. However, it is not necessary that consolidation is always cause breakout towards upside. The direction of the break out is decided by the the quality of future news/result or circumstances.
BBL also shows two spikes in the chart where volume have jumped much greater than average daily trading with , which perhaps can be assigned to inside trading, as the results date is approaching near. MACD and RSI indicators also show clear and consistent upward trend, one can expect a good break up in the price with good jump in the price.
On 15-04-2008 TTML started making strides from 28-00 and went upto 37-00 (about 33%) in 6 trading sessions with good amount of volume. Thereafter it has been resting ,because of profit booking, between 37 to 35.60 nicely. Perhaps , it will make another stride from here to somewhere above 40.
The US Secretary of State, Condoleezza ‘Rice’, proving to be the rightful successor of the American President Bush, made ‘wheaty’ remarks about the appetites of India and China which are causing food crisis in the world.
Reacting to Rice’s statement, the Indian Government has said the U.S. Secretary of State has made a wrong assessment of the whole problem. Planning Commission Deputy Chairman, Montek Singh Alhuwalia said, “I don’t agree that there is a global food crisis because of India and China. There is an increase in food production too in both the countries.”
“The increase in production and use of biofuels might be the cause why cultivable area is limited,” he added.
Everyone is toying with the question. The market seems to have arrived at cross road and most experts are hopelessly divided about the direction where the market will head, and I am not expert at any technical analysis but I too have my opinion
I recall reading somewhere (do not recall the source, please share if some knows) that historically is is seen that once market corrects it takes 91 days to begin recovery phase.
Around 10-04-2008 Nifty showed first fall and continued, with 2-3 bounce back. Intermediate bounce backs lasted for 2-3 trading days but the trend was downwards. Around 09-04-2008 recovery started which continued for 7 session, then two insignificant days of profit booking and then the trend continued upward. Perhaps, this can be sign of beginning of recovery phase and the market has swing up after showing the bottom. The market was not fettered by any negative news during while making continuous uptrend which is good sign.
If one compares the chart of previous fall of 11-05-2006, which also showed recovery around 09-08-2006 (approximate 91 days) and then the trend was continued.
RSI (Relative Strength Index) of both the charts are strikingly similar going towards 70 , and should remain around that level (in the recovery of August 2006, RSI constantly remained around 70 till first week of December’06).
MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) in both the charts are moving above 0 (turning positive) with the positive histogram. After August-2006 correction MACD line remained consistently near 65 till 08-12-06.
Only CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) indicator shows some worrying sign. During May-August’06 recovery, CMF showed consistent accumulation during previous two months (July-Aug’06) of the recovery phase. However presently CMF is not conclusive at all and indicator is withered showing confusion among the market players.
Technical analysis , however, does not consider any external factors and merely base the analysis on the chart patterns. Thus the chart pattern shows bullish sign, but one has to wait for confirmation of bull market.
However, in US according Dow theory, the market has confirmed bullish signal as both the index (Dow Jones and Transportation) have arrived at confirming the bull signals around 18-04-2008 (Read following articles for Dow bullish signal).
I have been frustrated over many misleading advertisements aired on Indian television. Particularly I have strong dislike against certain advertisements of food products which are bent upon to change the eating habits of people. Unfortunately there is no such thing as censor on advertisements.
In this advertisment of orange juice from PriyaGold, the ad is attempting to establish that one should drink packaged/preserved orange juice instead of water. No doubt fruit juices are good for health, and I am not against that, but again preserved/packed juice does not contain any natural nutrition/nourishment as to natural homemade juice (eating fruits is better than drinking juice, but that is another issues).
However, this advertisement without any hesitation declare that onc should drink only juice and not water, which is apparent by its punch line “AB PANI KOI NAHI MANGEGA” / अबपानीकोईनहीमांगेगा ( Nobody will ask for water) .
You may find me little bit touchy, but I cant help myself and decide to grudge.
I have been subscriber of India Today Book Club for last 3 years and has purchased a good amount of books from ITBC. But recently I received a parcel through VPP and as it was from ITBC I paid for the parcel. What I found in the parcels was a set of cheap CD-ROMs which I did not recall ordering.
Next month I again got same parcel and I was not present and someone inadvertently received the parcel and paid for the same. Again the same set of CD-ROMs was in it. Then I received a call from my neighbor who had received similar parcel, but wisely he did not pay and asked me first about the contents of the parcel. I told him to refuse to receive the said parcel.
Thereafter, I wrote to ITBC and not to sent any book unless I place order. Though I my subscription is about to expire and I do not intend to extend considering such incidents.
As usual the letter of Warren Buffet to his shareholders carries wisdoms , straight advises and humor. (PDF File)
His company , Berkshire Co. Ltd., has given 21.1 % of compounded annual gain,in the absolute term it is whopping 40,0863 % during the year 1965 to 2007.
Following are few quotes from the 21 pages long letter :
You may recall a 2003 Silicon Valley bumper sticker that implored, “Please, God, Just One More Bubble.” Unfortunately, this wish was promptly granted, as just about all Americans came to believe that house prices would forever rise. That conviction made a borrower’s income and cash equity seem unimportant to lenders, who shoveled out money, confident that HPA – house price appreciation – would cure all problems. Today, our country is experiencing widespread pain because of that erroneous belief. As house prices fall, a huge amount of financial folly is being exposed. You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out – and what we are witnessing at some of our largest financial institutions is an ugly sight.
Our country’s weakening currency is not the fault of OPEC, China, etc. Other developed countries rely on imported oil and compete against Chinese imports just as we do. In developing a sensible trade policy, the U.S. should not single out countries to punish or industries to protect. Nor should we take actions likely to evoke retaliatory behavior that will reduce America’s exports, true trade that benefits both our country and the rest of the world
I should mention that people who expect to earn 10% annually from equities during this century – envisioning that 2% of that will come from dividends and 8% from price appreciation – are implicitly forecasting a level of about 24,000,000 on the Dow by 2100. If your adviser talks to you about doubledigit returns from equities, explain this math to him – not that it will faze him. Many helpers are apparently direct descendants of the queen in Alice in Wonderland, who said: “Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” Beware the glib helper who fills your head with fantasies while he fills his pockets with fees.
This one was recommended by many visitors but I was not much thrilled about this particular song. However, after listening closing it reveals the true voice of the shayar, Shahir Ludhiyanvi, himself. The movies is also believed to be made in his personal life.
Woh mere beech nahi aaye,
Mein unke beechme kyun aaoon,
Unki soobha aur shamona ka,
Mein ek bhi lamha kyon paaoon
Main pal do pal ka shaayar hoon
Pal do pal meri kahaani hai
Pal do pal meri hasti hai
Pal do pal meri jawaani hai
Mujhse pehle kitne shaayar
Aaye aur aakar chale gaye
Kuchh aahein bharkar laut gaye
Kuchh naghme gaakar chale gaye
Woh bhi ek pal ka kissa thhey
Main bhi ek pal ka kissa hoon
Kal tumse juda ho jaaoonga
Woh aaj tumhaara hissa hoon
Main pal do pal ka..
Kal aur aayenge nagmon ki
Khilti kaliya chunne waale
Mujhse behtar kehne waale
Tumse behtar sunne waale
Kal koi mujhko yaad kare
Kyoon koi mujhko yaad kare
Mashroof zamaana mere liye
Kyoon waqt apna barbaad kare
Main pal do pal ka..
***
कल नई कुंपले फूटेंगी ,
कल नए फूल मुस्कुराएंगे,
और नए घास की नई फर्श पर,
नए पांव इठ्लाएंगे,
वह मेरे बीच नही आए,
में उनके बीचमे क्यों आऊँ,
उनकी सुबह और शामों का,
में एक भी लम्हा क्यों पाऊँ
मैं पल दो पल का शायर हूँ
पल दो पल मेरी कहानी है
पल दो पल मेरी हस्ती है
पल दो पल मेरी जवानी है
मुझसे पहले कितने शायर
आए और आकर चले गए
कुछ आहें भरकर लौट गए
कुछ नगमे गाकर चले गए
वह भी एक पल का किस्सा थे
मैं भी एक पल का किस्सा हूँ
कल तुमसे जुदा हो जाऊंगा
वह आज तुम्हारा हिस्सा हूँ
मैं पल दो पल का …
कल और आयेंगे नगमों की
खिलती कलियाँ चुनने वाले
मुझसे बेहतर कहने वाले
तुमसे बेहतर सुनने वाले
कल कोई मुझको याद करे
क्यूं कोई मुझको याद करे
मशरूफ ज़माना मेरे लिए
क्यूं वक्त अपना बरबाद करे
मैं पल दो पल का ..
NIFTY , has been closing on lower side for last three trading sessions and on the candle stick chart it has appeared as Three Black Crows. Three black Crows is considered as the bearish reversal particular when the price has been in continuous uptrend, which is the case with NIFTY.Ordinarily one black candle indicate the interference in bullish trend , second black candle confirm bearish mood, perhaps by the way of profit booking and third consecutive black candle make the reversal obvious.
As usual the letter of Warren Buffet to his shareholders carries wisdoms , straight advises and humor. (
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