Consistent five trading day in upmove has reversed the trend. Weekly chart of NIFTY clearly shows the uptrend and with many other indicators in that direction.
(kindly click on the image for larger view)
Positive Break out : From02/05/2008 to 18/07/2008 the NIFTY showed consitent downtrend and thereafter it gave positive breakout above the resistance line and closed above the line.
ADX indicator (Average Directional Index) (?) : ADX line was at near 58 in January’08 when the recent fall started. ADX line was in continuous getting lower and presently at the lowest (21). Ordinarily when ADX indicator is below 25, it is good to avoid trading. However, the ADX indicator is at 38 on daily chart , but gradually lowering, implying loosing of strength of the trend and consolidation for some time. The ADX line is also moving below both the DMI (Green and Red) lines , which also suggest to avoid trading.
The green line in the ADX indicator implies positive direction movement indicator (+DMI). Surprisingly the green line started decreasing as early as in October’07 and went as low as at 9 during April’08. Thereafter it has started upside movement and at presently at 21. Ordinarily when the green line is moving up with rising ADX it is bullish sign, but presently ADX line seems to crossing below the green line which makes the situation little bit clueless.
Elder’s Ray (?): With the last week upmove, the bullish power on Elder’s Ray has gone above zero, in positive, at 86. However, on the weekly chart this upmove is not significant one. But on the daily chart the bullish power went upto 360, and it was highest on one year frame. If bullish power goes above zero, and makes the higher high , it is buy signal.
Relative Strength Index (RSI) : On the daily chart RSI went upto 60 in the recent move and now it is falling. But on the weekly chart , it touched to its lowest after the fall , to 32 and now it is rising.
So my reading for NIFTY weekly chart suggets mid-term uptrend and NIFTY after some consolidation may touch highs of 4800-5000 within 2-3 months