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NIFTY : End of tug of war?

Posted by JV on May 10, 2008

After the crash which started from 10-01-2008, market showed recovery from Mid-March and went up. In 1st week of April’08 showed uptrend on the chart but with some doubts.

But there after it started rallying down within first three trading session of May’08 chart showed bearish reversal with Three Black Crows. As the reliability of this indicator considered high, I was expecting some solid sell off with loss of 100-150 in one day. However, the marked slided lazily , mimicking the uptrend and confusing the experts and analysists .

Now, all indicators confirm the bearish mood (well, indicators were saying loudly, but I kept fingers crossed :). EMA 20 (red line) is downword, volume are at daily average (ideally it should be decreased during phase). MACD line crossover , with negative divergent (and in negative too ) in histogram. William R% indicated nose dive from overbought to oversold.

One can expect a technical re-bounce , but more down side will be there. Check this example.

Posted in Bombay Stock Exchange, Equity, India, Indian Stock Market, Investment, Sensex, Shares, Stock, Stock Market, Stocks, Uncategorized | 4 Comments »

NIFTY indicates bearish reversal : Three Black Crows

Posted by JV on May 6, 2008

I have been enjoying recent market volatilities as they provide me good opportunities to buy stocks at lower valuation , and such volatility makes interesting chart patterns which I enjoy studying and analyzing. So, please dont take my views too seriously.

Bearish ReversalNIFTY , has been closing on lower side for last three trading sessions and on the candle stick chart it has appeared as Three Black Crows. Three black Crows is considered as the bearish reversal particular when the price has been in continuous uptrend, which is the case with NIFTY.Ordinarily one black candle indicate the interference in bullish trend , second black candle confirm bearish mood, perhaps by the way of profit booking and third consecutive black candle make the reversal obvious.

Recognition Criteria for Three Black Crows:

1. Market is characterized by uptrend.
2. Three consecutive long black candlesticks appear.
3. Each day closes at a new low.
4. Each day opens within the body of the previous day.
5. Each day closes near or at its lows

Therefore, in short term market move to lower levels. However, large selling pressure is not expected as there no negative news. Perhaps  traders may want  wait till new bullish signal appears on the chart.

More readings on Three Black Crows.

Posted in Equity, India, Investment, Sensex, Shares, Stock, Stock Market, Stocks, Uncategorized | 6 Comments »

Bharat Bijlee (BBL) : Consolidating

Posted by JV on May 5, 2008

Bharat Bijlee (BBL) has been consolidating for last 3 weeks between narrow range of 2100 to 2200. Last three sessions were showing some  uptrend with slight rise in price.  It is making very interesting chart pattern for break out. However, it is not necessary that consolidation is always cause breakout towards upside. The direction of the break out is decided by the the quality of future news/result or circumstances.

BBL also shows two spikes in the chart where volume have jumped much greater than average daily trading with  , which perhaps can be assigned to inside trading, as the results date is approaching near.  MACD and RSI indicators also show clear and consistent upward trend, one can expect a good break up in the price with  good jump in the price.

Bharat Bijlee (BBL) Chart February 2008 to May 2008

Posted in Bombay Stock Exchange, Business, Equity, India, Indian Stock Market, Investment, Quotes, Sensex, Shares, Stock, Stock Market, Stocks, Uncategorized | No Comments »

Whether Indian stock market is showing bullish signs?

Posted by JV on May 2, 2008

Everyone is toying with the question. The market seems to have arrived at cross road and most experts are hopelessly divided about the direction where the market will head, and I am not expert at any technical analysis but I too have my opinion :)

I recall reading somewhere (do not recall the source, please share if some knows) that historically is is seen that once market corrects it takes 91 days to begin recovery phase.

Nifty Chart January 2008 to April 2008

Around 10-04-2008 Nifty showed first fall and continued, with 2-3 bounce back. Intermediate bounce backs lasted for 2-3 trading days but the trend was downwards. Around 09-04-2008 recovery started which continued for 7 session, then two insignificant days of profit booking and then the trend continued upward. Perhaps, this can be sign of beginning of recovery phase and the market has swing up after showing the bottom. The market was not fettered by any negative news during while making continuous uptrend which is good sign.

If one compares the chart of previous fall of 11-05-2006, which also showed recovery around 09-08-2006 (approximate 91 days) and then the trend was continued.

RSI (Relative Strength Index) of both the charts are strikingly similar going towards 70 , and should remain around that level (in the recovery of August 2006, RSI constantly remained around 70 till first week of December’06).

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) in both the charts are moving above 0 (turning positive) with the positive histogram. After August-2006 correction MACD line remained consistently near 65 till 08-12-06.

Only CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) indicator shows some worrying sign. During May-August’06 recovery, CMF showed consistent accumulation during previous two months (July-Aug’06) of the recovery phase. However presently CMF is not conclusive at all and indicator is withered showing confusion among the market players.

Technical analysis , however, does not consider any external factors and merely base the analysis on the chart patterns. Thus the chart pattern shows bullish sign, but one has to wait for confirmation of bull market.

However, in US according Dow theory, the market has confirmed bullish signal as both the index (Dow Jones and Transportation) have arrived at confirming the bull signals around 18-04-2008 (Read following articles for Dow bullish signal).

http://www.internetnews.com/bus-news/article.php/3741971
http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2008/04/21/thanks-a-lot-dow-theory.aspx
http://www.forbes.com/personalfinance/2008/05/01/allocation-diversification-…

Posted in Bombay Stock Exchange, Business, Equity, India, Indian Stock Market, Investment, Sensex, Shares, Stock, Stock Market, Uncategorized | 2 Comments »

Warren Buffet’s letter to his shareholders (2007)

Posted by JV on March 11, 2008

As usual the letter of Warren Buffet to his shareholders carries wisdoms , straight advises and humor. (PDF File)

His company , Berkshire Co. Ltd., has given 21.1 % of compounded annual gain,in the absolute term it is whopping 40,0863 % during the year 1965 to 2007.

Following are few quotes from the 21 pages long letter :

You may recall a 2003 Silicon Valley bumper sticker that implored, “Please, God, Just One More Bubble.” Unfortunately, this wish was promptly granted, as just about all Americans came to believe that house prices would forever rise. That conviction made a borrower’s income and cash equity seem unimportant to lenders, who shoveled out money, confident that HPA – house price appreciation – would cure all problems. Today, our country is experiencing widespread pain because of that erroneous belief. As house prices fall, a huge amount of financial folly is being exposed. You only learn who has been swimming naked when the tide goes out – and what we are witnessing at some of our largest financial institutions is an ugly sight.

Our country’s weakening currency is not the fault of OPEC, China, etc. Other developed countries rely on imported oil and compete against Chinese imports just as we do. In developing a sensible trade policy, the U.S. should not single out countries to punish or industries to protect. Nor should we take actions likely to evoke retaliatory behavior that will reduce America’s exports, true trade that benefits both our country and the rest of the world

I should mention that people who expect to earn 10% annually from equities during this century – envisioning that 2% of that will come from dividends and 8% from price appreciation – are implicitly forecasting a level of about 24,000,000 on the Dow by 2100. If your adviser talks to you about doubledigit returns from equities, explain this math to him – not that it will faze him. Many helpers are apparently direct descendants of the queen in Alice in Wonderland, who said: “Why, sometimes I’ve believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.” Beware the glib helper who fills your head with fantasies while he fills his pockets with fees.

Further readings :

Lessons from the master : Discussions on Warren Buffett’s letter to shareholders

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Posted in Equity, Investment, Stock | No Comments »

Reliance Power Bonus : Wow ?!?

Posted by JV on February 18, 2008

Reliance Power has remained in controversies at every stage, even before it was conceived and even after the public issue. Certainly enough, the public issue was not a reason to the recent damp in the market, but unfortunately Reliance Power became scapegoat for the crash.

Many guesses were made about the listing price , and one of guess was that if Anil Ambani could keep the price of Reliance Power above 900-00 , he would be richest person. Thus before the IPO premium was nearly 400-00+ but soon after the market crash all the premium and high hopes for listing above 900-00 were vanished.

After the listing Reliance Power has been available below the issue price of 450-00 and the investors are cursing the management for it, as if the company could really tackle the pricing in the market.

Now, the management has come up with a novel and generous idea of issuing bonus shares, only to public, and not to the promoters, to cover the short term losses of the investors .

This generous gesture of the company has made me say , wow!! Reliance Power has been really amazing company in every respect. The company collects 44 times more premium on its face value, which has no business, no assets at the moment going to public, earliest project will commence after nealry 4 years, still IPO is oversubscribed 70 times or more, finds its place in Future and Option segament from the first day , traded below issue price, and then bonus issue from nowhere.

To me, the move of issuing bonus share is perhaps simply to encourage price hikes. More particularly, as the management is issuing bonus to only to public which is wise move, other wise a bonus issue to all the shareholders, increase share capital and dilute earnings.

So, one can expect good price move in Reliance Power in short term. Which will give opprtunity to exit from the scrip.

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Posted in Bombay Stock Exchange, Equity, India, Indian Stock Market, Investment, Reliance, Shares, Stock, Stock Market, Stocks | 4 Comments »

Return of bulls in Indian Stock Market ?!

Posted by JV on January 25, 2008

Well, no one is sure about it. But after the historical massacres on 21st and 22nd January ,which shaken all the trust and confidence of the investors, it was difficult to hope for a recovery.

The recovery seems arrived sooner than expected. Today ,not unlike Monday and Tuesday, the Bombay Sensitive index made another historical record ,in a pleasant way , by the way of gaining about 1140 points (6.62%) in a single day.

Technical analyst were expecting a bounce back. During mid January’08, RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicated overbought situation and also showed negative divergence. Therefore, some sliding towards the centerline was expected. However, the sudden huge slide for two consecutive days brought the market in oversold situation. After today’s rise, RSI indicates positive divergence, hardly keeping the nose above water,at around 35.

So, looking to the buoyancy displayed by the market, bull run seems in order , of course, subject to the global cues and other factors.


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Posted in Bombay Stock Exchange, Indian Stock Market, Investment, Sensex, Shares, Stock, Stock Market | 2 Comments »

Reliance Natural Resources (RNRL) : Investment ideas

Posted by JV on November 24, 2007

I am publishing this post in the answer of Sudha’s query about the price target of RNRL, which I have been occasionally asked.

About RNRL I am as clueless as most of people , about the business of the company. The business profile on the official website (as on 24-11-2007) of the company remains silent about the business .

What general public knows about the it is that the company become demerged during the dispute between the Ambani brothers resolved and shares of of RNRL having face value of Rs.5-00, were issued to the share holders of at the premium of Rs.35-00.

While the demerger RNRL entered into agreement with RIL for supply certain quantity at certain price for a certain period. However, there is prolonged dispute between the brothers about the terms of the agreement and it is pending in the court. (See news 1 2 3 ) So, unlike RPL , RNRL has no fundamental footing to work on.

If you check the financial of the company you will find RNRL as one of the most expensive stock in the front line stocks. Against the huge share capital of Rs.736 Crore , quarterly turnover is 63 crore and net profit is 19 crore. Therefore, at given EPS of 00-27 paisa, price earning ratio is whopping 585 at the market price of Rs.158-00.

After initial listing in March’ 2006 RNRL was ranging between 22 to 30 till May’07. (check turnover figures at NSE)

In June’07 it clearly breached the level of 30 and moved up smartly without any downside till mid September. On 21-09-2007, it gave a unprecedented single day price hike in the history of Indian stock market from moving 56 to 76 and on next trading day on 24-09-07 it closed on 93.

RNRL Chart showing market price

Such sudden price hike drew attention of many investors and thereafter RNRL was on dream. People was expecting hikes of Rs.10-20 everyday and speculating price of 300 soon. But after hitting life time high 198-00 (203-00 on BSE) it followed the law of gravity and fall down but not significantly. Following chart will help you to under the price movements graphically.

It is very exciting to see the price movement of RNRL on screen, but there is nothing fundamentally to justify all these price hikes.

It is difficult to set any price target for this script as it is already hyper-overrvalued, and therefore it is strongly adviseable not to invest at this price unless you have long time horizon and some risk appetite.

If you are already invested at high price you will definately see your purchase price looking to the recent reversal up trend. However, every upward movement will be faced with profit booking and it may take some time to cross the life time high.

Disclaimer here, I have invested some good amount in RNRL at average of Rs.22-00 and I have become greedy as I am getting thundering 700% return and I have very deep (highly unlikely) stop loss and I am staying invested. Probably sell 10% stake at 220-00 take back the original invested amount.


Other Related posts :
Investment in Reliance Petroleum (RPL)
Reliance Petro(RPL) : High returns
Accumulating Tata Teleservices (Mahrahstra) Ltd. (TTML)

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Posted in Avoid, Bombay Stock Exchange, Equity, India, Indian Stock Market, Investment, Quotes, Reliance, Reliance Petro, Sensex, Shares, Stock, Stock Market, Stocks | 4 Comments »

Bull story

Posted by JV on October 30, 2007

Here is the reproduction of entire article from business-standard.com
****
Mudar Patherya explains how to identify a bull market.

# It’s a bull market if you’ve woken up this morning with the feeling: “Thank god, it is Monday!”

# It’s a bull market if the analyst takes a deep breath, runs his mind quickly across 1985, 1992, 2000 and says, “But it is different this time.”

# It’s a bull market if the MD is talking to you but looking at the CNBC ticker.

# It’s a bull market if your son asks you for the meaning of ‘support’ and you confuse him with trend lines and candlesticks.

# It’s a bull market if your sense of time evolves from ‘I knew her from the time she was this small’ to ‘It was in those days when RIL was only Rs 15…’

# It’s a bull market when your broker says, “Lai liyo baapa, share jowa nahin maley!”

# It’s a bull market if you discover a sudden respect for the middle-level accountant of a publicly listed company and suffix his name with a ‘ji’.

# It’s a bull market if every analyst advises caution but adds, “However, in the long term we are bullish.”

# It’s a bull market if you’re suddenly discovered on the social circuit because you happen to be the husband of the wife who is a niece of the person who was a friend of Rakesh Jhunjhunwala’s father 30 years ago.

# It’s a bull market if people call you up to discuss the weather, the pollution, the nation, the Marxists and inevitably end up with, “Kuch khareedne laayak?”

# It’s a bull market if everyone is convinced that the country has a great future but will still call you as soon as the market melts three per cent and ask, “Badhoo baraabar, ney?”

# It’s a bull market if a Rs 10 crore profit becomes a Rs 15 crore profit quarter-on-quarter and you sneer dismissively, “Kuch ho nahin raha hai!”

# It’s a bull market if you disinvest big time but prefer to leave the surplus with the broker saying, “Aaakhir aapko hi toh mujhe dena hai.”

# It’s a bull market if you apply the ROI (return on investment) concept to everything your wife says you need at home and grumble: “Yaad hai, if we had not bought the microwave oven but bought Saboo Sodium stock, today you would have been a queen riding an Alto…”

# It’s a bull market if you see 25-year-olds trade derivatives arrogantly and come away feeling that you need to read Victor Frankl’s Man’s Search for Meaning all over again.

# It’s a bull market if you encounter a new species of professional who only works five days a week from 9.55 to 3.30 and responds to everything with ‘Jalsaa chhey!’

# It’s a bull market when housewives discover an undiscovered part of their personalities in the 90 minutes between putting the tadka on the daalm and picking pappu up from school by calling the broker and asking “Tewariji, aaj kya naya hai?”

# It’s a bull market when the Opinion Democratisation Index peaks, usually manifested in 23-year-olds dismissing companies with a 10 per cent increase in earnings as ‘chors’.

# It’s a bull market when you ask why Prism Cement will go to Rs 81 and the answer is ‘Kyonki website pey likha hain’.

# It’s a bull market if Enam puts out a research report indicating that the stock could double in a year and you say ‘Bus?’

# It’s a bull market when the management is explaining its restructuring, business model and sustainability agenda and the analyst simply wants to know ‘Lekin EPS kya aayega?’

# It’s a bull market if the wife starts getting suspicious about an sms every two minutes on your cell phone, sneaks a look when you go to the loo, only to find ‘Buy Nifty futures’.

# It’s a bull market when you get a call from someone who you thought was a proud father of an MBA graduate but insists, “Aap mere bete ko aap ke under mein le leejiye, aadmi ban jaayega!”

# It’s a bull market when people don’t have more than Rs 223 in their pocket but discuss stake sales and numbers ending six zeroes.

# It’s a bull market when you find it difficult to go on a vacation because somewhere deep inside you nurse the feeling that an unattended market might do something stupid behind your back.

# It’s a bull market when Nandigram seems a ‘jhanjhat’ and Myanmar monks irrelevant.

# It’s a bull market when a company with a turnover of Rs 1300 crore announces an expansion of Rs 16,000 crore, issues a statement, cuts ribbons and is photographed alongside the CM and all the hard work being put in by some outstanding business leaders suddenly looks like poultry raw material.

# It’s a bull market when you read the front page of the pink papers and realise how small you are.

# It’s a bull market if your daughter mentions ‘Let us take a break’ and your first recall is interrupted hours of trading due to the sun outage.

# It’s a bull market when you get irritable on Saturday and Sunday.

# It’s a bull market when you read a column like this and say, “What? No tip?” and hiss that your time was bloody wasted.


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Posted in Bombay Stock Exchange, Business, India, Indian Stock Market, Investment, Shares, Stock, Stock Market, Stocks | 3 Comments »

Market takes a breath

Posted by JV on October 12, 2007

After the marathon of 15 days no one was surprised to see the today’s halt. Today only trigger was expected from Reliance Industry about split or bonus (quite far fetched expectation, of course) and got none except making RIL as first MNC of India. Rupee keep appreciated making the IT pack duller. So there was profit booking everywhere. The Finance Minister was also worried about the speedy rise of the market.

However, FII do not appear to be worried by the Indian politics but appear to be interested to hold and invest more in Indian markets largely in infrastructure , telecom as there is huge potentials are still untapped and banking sector as it is very less involved and less effected to sub-prime exposure.

I sense that market will open on positive note on Monday and will recoup the loss made today.


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