Yesterday I tried to apply Fibonacci Arc on NIFTY. I applied the Arc from the high point of 02-05-2008 to the low of 02-07-2008. However, Fibonacci Arc is not supposed to give any kind of buy/signal but still gives idea about the trend.
I was skeptical about the application of Fibonacci arc and other Fibonacci tools. But when I applied it and observed the arc , surprisingly it seemed to prvoide support and resistance lines.
(kindly click on the image for larger view)
Yesterday’s doji was on the boundary of the 100% circle of the Arc. T0day NIFTY traded outside the Arc and made new low. This movement has again confirmed the downtrend.
Yesterday’s movement on NIFTY, opening high and trading high during the day and losing most of gain during last hour, created Shooting Star pattern, which is another bearish reversal indicator. To confirm the trend it is necessary that the next day the market trades below the closing price of the previous day. It actually happened today.
Edit : (error in the chart description : read 08-07-08 not 08-08-08)
Yesterday , NIFTY closed at 4030, and today it opened lower at 4028 and crashed within few moments to 3896 making the day’s low, and did not trade above 4028. Technically, further significant fall is expected.
Today the market was terrific or terrible, depending on which side you are. Market opened with nice gap up, which left me wondering. However I tried to apply fibonacci retracement on the intraday chart.The market seemed to have followed the support and resistance level of fibonacci retracement.
I tried to day trade but without any success as the market was very volatile. In last hours market given up all the gains and that made Shooting Star pattern on EOD charts
Shooting star is seen is the bearish indicator. I have found a good video clip on that.
I have gone short on the NIFTY lets see how the market turns out tomorrow.
It as been near 2 years I have been investing in stock market, but always of delivery basis. I have been often told about Future and Option is for traders, and have been advised to stay away from it. But when you are advised to abstain from something, it attracts. I have been analyzing the charts of various scrips including NIFTY, but never had enough courage to act on my own analysis.
Finally, I entered in the future/option trading and this to record my first trade, first profit and first loss too.
A. In my first FnO trade I bought MINI NIFTY at 4565 on 4th June. My decision to buy NIFTY was based on RSI (Relative Strength Index) indicator. During the previous two days (2nd and 3rd June) NIFTY had cracked from 4869 to the low of 4565 and RSI indicator was just on 30 indicating oversold position. Therefore I assume that NIFTY would give some technical bounce back. I wanted just small pie of my share and was ready to sell NIFTY if earned 50 points or so. However, Uma advised my not put cap on my profits , but I was over cautious and as it was my first trade, I wanted to end it with some profit.
So, I sold NIFTY on next day at 4616 earning my first 50 points , but had I waited, I could earn more 80 points. But , then again patience is rare virtue. Nevertheless I was excited with my first trade and profit, and enjoyed enormously. By then everybody around me were painfully aware, that I have become “NIFTY Trader”
B. Encouraged by first the success, I ventured again on 6th June. On that day the market was at its volatile best. In the afternoon I decided to go long, as CMF showed reduced distribution on the previous day (5th June) and I bought NIFTY at 4697. But the market, as if to teach me a lesson, started sliding down and with the ‘able‘ assistance of Reliance Money I eventually squared off the trade at 4644, losing all the gains of the previous trade with some additional loss.
Then , at the closing moments I decided to go short and I have short sold NIFTY at 4604 , considering that the NIFTY is in intermediate bear trend (CMF is also again in hight distribution mode) and it would be wise to go short instead of long which is more difficult in the present situation.
Now, with all the circumstances has happened during the week ends, NIFTY seem to be cracking nearly 100 points of not less. I am keeping my fingers crossed.
I have been , unhappily, using Reliance Money for quite some months and my experience is nothing but frustration. I have written an email Reliance Money, with hope that Reliance Money will give due consideration to my requests. Below is the email I have sent to Reliance Money.
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To : customer.grievance@reliancemoney.co.in
Sub : Unable to login and many more problems
Dear Sirs,
I am Reliance Money subscriber and my user name is ********. I am unable to access login page, and even with great difficulty when I get the login page it is next to impossible to log in. Surprisingly while off hours (non trading hours) RM works somewhat smoother than trading hours. Therefore, I feel that your server is not capable to handle the traffic during trading hours, and thus my reliance money trading account becomes useless as I cannot trade. Kindly do not advise me to check my system, internet connection and other plethora of settings, as I have been using computers and internet for more than 10 years, and all other sites works fine with my BSNL boradband connection except Reliance Money. And I have three different PC (all with BSNL Broadband ) but the experiences remain same.
Further you do not provide any client side software which I can install and run on my PC, which would be quite easy on your servers. I know Motilal Oswal, Kotak etc. provide neat software and I have worked with them, they give better experience of trading.
I am also frustrated about auto log out feature. Perhaps Reliance Money has put the feature as security measure, but I find it annoying. You should put an option allowing me to turn on or off Auto logging out, so I can have selection. No doubt auto logging feature allows Reliance Money to somewhat lessen the burden on their servers, but I consider it annoying and term as DEFICIENCY IN SERVICE. I have to keep on clicking uselessly just not get auto log out.
Surprisingly , auto log out feature is also in Reliance Money Mail , and often logged out while typing an email to you and then I reach to height of my frustration. Thus I am writing to you through my Gmail account
Another thing I am puzzled about is trading lock on certain stock which is lesser than 10-00 Rs. and which has small volume. As Reliance Money requires 100 % advance before I am able to place any order, in my view such trading restriction is not useful, except they fetch very little brokerage to you. There are many stock which are of face value of Re.1-00 and thus below Rs.10-00, but not necessarily risky stocks. I have lost many such trading opportunities on account of that restriction and I had to buy the same through my broker.
If you have any plan to update the servers and other features, I perhaps can wait for some weeks to see improvement else I am moving out of Reliance Money.
Hope to get humanly (not mechanical one) response, that to in reasonable quick time.
I am sending this to my Reliance Money agent who recommended Reliance Money to me, and other subscriber to whom I unwisely recommended to use Reliance Money.
Yours frustrated,
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If you are using Reliance Money and having similar problems , please do keep writing to Reliance Money, and share your experience with everyone.
Read my previous post when I started trading through Reliance Money
Reliance Industry (RIL) is considered as torch bearer for Indian Stock Market, and it is, without much doubt. After the recent crash RIL recovered on 9th April onwards, earlier than the market, and NIFTY followed it. On 17th April RIL showed high of 2714, but closed in red at 2640.
Thereafter, RIL remained strongly between 2600-2700, even during the continuous fall in NIFTY for six consecutive trading session from 2nd May to 9th May, and eventually RIL slipped below 2600 on 9th May.
Thereafter it tried to recover with the market, but gradually it has been slipping beyond 2500 and on 30th May it went to the low of 2390 and closed at 2403, showing weakness in the trend.
Last two falls were with greater volume, almost double, than average trading days. Increase in volume suggests that people inclined towards the current trend. So in a down day more volume shows that there was large sell of than average and it is also negative indicator. People who have been holding the script since some time sees no upside in near future thus start selling off.
Such attitude is clearly reflected in Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator . On 30th May RIL generated largest negative bar on CMF in its recent history, which shows people are distributing (selling) the script.
Accumlation/distribution line is very clear. A/D line is sliding since 21st May and eventually has gone in negative territory , after more than six weeks it has gone in negative territory, lastly it was in negative on during third week of March’08.
Interstingly , MACD lines have been sliding down since 9th May, earlier than all other indicators, and with negative histogram. MACD 20 line is now in negative territory.
B. Again Three Black Crows Second indicator appeared of during on 22-23-26 May
C. Today (29-05-200 candle showed bearish engulfing pattern, and the mood is confirmed by the amount of (E) volume which is higher than average. (However, the reason for such high volume can be assigned to the settlement day)
D. Today 20 Day EMA (Red line) has crossed under 50 day EMA (Blue line), which indicates downturn.
F. MACD has been in negative with negative divergence.
G. Accumulation/Distribution indicator clearly reveals continuous intense distribution.
Today NIFTY reached to the climax after the ongoing tussle between bulls and bears and ended the suspense of last four weeks. This time also the chart has generated Three Black Crows indicator as previously did between 1-3 May. But this time the force is greater bears appears in complete command of the situation. All other indicators are clear as crystal going negative .
Midterm chart also appear bearish as CMF (Chaikin Money Flow) shows distribution all the way and RSI (Relative Strength Index) has failed to reach anywhere near 70, let alone above it.
Tata Steel (TISCO) is moving up smartly. The chart shows very good bullish sign. The price is very well above the 20 days EMA which is at 818. MACD shows sharp upward move with consistent and positive histogram. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) shows strong continuous accumulation and which is leading Relative Strength Index (RSI) just a tick above 71 which is bullish indicator. Presently the chart of TISCO is showing a classic bullish chart with all positive indicators.
Price movement also shows great support around 800. Now as it is nearing 900 it is facing resistance and perhaps consolidate a bit, but is more likely that it may cross 900 level on next trading session as bulls has much more force than bears at this level.
Roller coaster is what NIFTY has been in last one month and I have been enjoying the ride. I am not trader at heart and do not participate in the daily/short term activities. But being a Gemini the volatile and chaotic situations gives me thrills and excitement
The NIFTY chart is pleasant to eye, at least for short term. On 2nd May it touched to psychological height of 5299 and closed in red. Infact, the bearish trend was indicated a day ago on April 30, but there was no other indicators so that red closing was not significant. On side note, Candle Chart showed red bar on 2nd May , however OHLC showed green , perhaps therefore candle chart showed more clearly about the trend reversal.
That after 2nd May , for five consecutive days were bears delight. However, it noteworthy that during these six red days the fall was gradual and not sharp as expected. So, either bears were weaker than expected or bulls did not give up easily and fought back without giving much ground.
12th May was D-day, and bulls were pushed to the level 4914, it was bottle neck situation , but bulls reiterated strongly and recovered some of the ground lost on previous day. On next day, bears put more force but positively the lower level was 4944, higher than previous 4914. On 14th the bulls started from 4958, where it was left on the previous closing and marched and closed at 5012, just above the previous days opening of 5009, as if challenging the bears.What happened thereafter in two days on 15th and 16th showed clear strength of bulls.
Ofcourse, now as the level of 5200 is approaching, bears are ready to sho(r)t back. Now level of 5300 is crucial and required to be conquered, but bears will not give up easily. All indicators are turning into positive, except the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) which is disheartening. CMF is still in distribution mode, of course histogram is decreasing with positive divergent.
