NIFTY : End of tug of war?
Posted by JV on May 10, 2008
After the crash which started from 10-01-2008, market showed recovery from Mid-March and went up. In 1st week of April’08 showed uptrend on the chart but with some doubts.
But there after it started rallying down within first three trading session of May’08 chart showed bearish reversal with Three Black Crows. As the reliability of this indicator considered high, I was expecting some solid sell off with loss of 100-150 in one day. However, the marked slided lazily , mimicking the uptrend and confusing the experts and analysists .
Now, all indicators confirm the bearish mood (well, indicators were saying loudly, but I kept fingers crossed :). EMA 20 (red line) is downword, volume are at daily average (ideally it should be decreased during phase). MACD line crossover , with negative divergent (and in negative too ) in histogram. William R% indicated nose dive from overbought to oversold.
One can expect a technical re-bounce , but more down side will be there. Check this example.
May 10, 2008 at 10:44 pm
Well my thoughts exactly! Bears have so conclusively failed to crack 4500 that I am a bit disbelieving of the possibility that 4900 might break. If ICICIBank breaks 800, then I say, run for cover! (ideally PE4500)
May 11, 2008 at 10:44 am
Hmm.. But I can see the level of 4900 cracking, perhaps by Monday itself
May 11, 2008 at 11:17 pm
Gap down opening may possible on tommorow( 12th May,2008 ). If Nifty breaks 4940-4950 band then next support at 4740. So if we want to sustain the upmove then we should hold 4950. So Nifty may try to breach 4950 and even 4880 and then a bounce back to 4950 at late trade or one can expect even above.
So be carefull in selecting stop loss.
And go long if 4950 recover. Else remain short the nifty below 4950 with stop loss at 4982. And keep lowering your stoploss whenever nifty cracks downwards.
Right now technical indicators show strong sell Signals and there is a chance of turn around.
May 11, 2008 at 11:58 pm
Thanks Rajendran, for the input. I am planning to go short on NIFTY.
May 12, 2008 at 6:38 am
Chance of Boucce back if Yen is not breaking below 102.85.
Have an Eye on Yen While taking trade
Nifty : 4982
Regards,
Rajandran R
Time : 6:48 A.M 12th May,2008
May 12, 2008 at 7:43 am
Yen Trading at 103.06
Time : 7:55 A.M , 12th May,2008
May 12, 2008 at 9:05 am
Yen trading firm
Cmp 103.47
Time : 9:10 a.m
May 12, 2008 at 9:36 am
Thanks Rajendra, now I am sure about the trend.
May 12, 2008 at 10:19 am
Yen cmp : 103:33
Nifty : 4923
Still yen trading fine
Time : 10:28a.m
May 12, 2008 at 11:27 am
Yen cmp : 103.36
Nifty Cmp : 4975
Time : 11.35a.m
May 12, 2008 at 12:17 pm
Yen cmp : 103.44
Nifty trading volatile cmp : 4920
If nifty closes with ‘w’ pattern then it is a bullish sign
Time : 12.25p.m
May 12, 2008 at 2:31 pm
Yen cmp : 103.88
Nifty : 4964
Yen in recovery mode
Time : 1.58p.m
May 12, 2008 at 3:36 pm
Nifty Atlast Technically bounced.
Nifty Cmp : 5013
Time : 3:30p.m
May 12, 2008 at 10:40 pm
Nifty closes with ‘w’ pattern it is a bullish sign
May 15, 2008 at 12:46 am
what do technicals say for 15th??
May 15, 2008 at 8:34 am
Market may remain bullish as the NIFTY has showed MATCHING WHITE CANDLE compared of previous day.
However the white candle has lower high and lower low than the black candle.